Unfolding temporal dynamics: Predicting social media popularity using multi-scale temporal decomposition

Bo Wu, Tao Mei, Wen-Huang Cheng, Yongdong Zhang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

64 Scopus citations

Abstract

Time information plays a crucial role on social media popularity. Existing research on popularity prediction, effective though, ignores temporal information which is highly related to user-item associations and thus often results in limited success. An essential way is to consider all these factors (user, item, and time), which capture the dynamic nature of photo popularity. In this paper, we present a novel approach to factorize the popularity into user-item context and time-sensitive context for exploring the mechanism of dynamic popularity. The user-item context provides a holistic view of popularity, while the time-sensitive context captures the temporal dynamics nature of popularity. Accordingly, we develop two kinds of time-sensitive features, including user activeness variability and photo prevalence variability. To predict photo popularity, we propose a novel framework named Multi-scale Temporal Decomposition (MTD), which decomposes the popularity matrix in latent spaces based on contextual associations. Specifically, the proposed MTD models time-sensitive context on different time scales, which is beneficial to automatically learn temporal patterns. Based on the experiments conducted on a real-world dataset with 1.29M photos from Flickr, our proposed MTD can achieve the prediction accuracy of 79.8% and outperform the best three state-of-The-Art methods with a relative improvement of 9.6% on average.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication30th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2016
PublisherAAAI press
Pages272-278
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9781577357605
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2016
Event30th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2016 - Phoenix, United States
Duration: 12 Feb 201617 Feb 2016

Publication series

Name30th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2016

Conference

Conference30th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2016
CountryUnited States
CityPhoenix
Period12/02/1617/02/16

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