Study on the flow estimate under extreme climate change scenarios — tsengwen river case

River flow may change under the condition of climate change and hence hydraulic structure within the basin may have a high risk of failure. Therefore, inspection on the existing river design discharge is necessary. This paper draws on the Tseng-wen Rivers as an example and applies the unparalleled dynamical downscaling method, subjecting the top 10 occurrences from 2075 to 2099, and simulates the possible peak flows through means of SOBEK river flow simulation model. Meanwhile, the river design discharge endorsed by the authorities is put to comparison to the flood-control capacity of existing dikes to assess possible impacts. The result shows that the peak flows occur at the upstream Yufong Bridge, midstream Ersi Bridge, and downstream Xinzhong (1) of Tseng-wen River will exceed the design discharges at the end of this century. Moreover, peak discharge at the end of this century is about 1.5 times of that occurred in the near future.