Strategic foresight using a modified Delphi with end-user participation: A case study of the iPad's impact on Taiwan's PC ecosystem

Chih-Young Hung; Wen Yee Lee; Ding Shan Wang

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.008

Strategic foresight using a modified Delphi with end-user participation: A case study of the iPad's impact on Taiwan's PC ecosystem

Chih-Young Hung^*, Wen Yee Lee, Ding Shan Wang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Institute of Management of Technology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

21 Scopus citations

Abstract

Taiwan is a personal computer (PC) manufacturing powerhouse, producing desktop (DT) computers, notebooks (NB), and netbooks (NetB). However, the emergence of tablets such as Apple's iPad, has threatened the PC market's prospects and significantly affected Taiwan's PC ecosystem. This study proposes a modified Delphi with end-user participation to provide strategic foresight for firms in Taiwan's PC ecosystem. The results show that these firms can adopt the following three strategies in response to the impact of tablets: (1) brand and service innovation, (2) focus on cloud technology and marketing products to China, and (3) cooperating with digital leisure and entertainment industry. We believe that this modified Delphi with end-user-participation model is a valuable foresight tool for products with a short life cycle, such as consumer electronics and fashion products.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	485-497
Number of pages	13
Journal	Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume	80
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.008
State	Published - 1 Mar 2013

Keywords

End-user-participated Delphi
IPad
Strategic foresight
Taiwan's PC ecosystem

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10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.008

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