Risk analysis for flow duration curve based seasonal discharge management programs

Jehng-Jung Kao*, Shyang Fu Bau

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Scopus citations


A non-seasonal discharge standard may be too stringent and not cost-effective for a season of large how, if the variation of seasonal streamflow of a river is significant. Seasonal discharge programs established based on streamflow variation were therefore explored in this work. A design procedure using the flow duration curve method, two total-mass-load based discharge programs, linear programming, and Monte-Carlo analysis is proposed for determining and analyzing the pertinent seasonal division of a two-season discharge management program. The flow duration curve method was used to compute the design low flow. The maximal total waste load and uniform treatment programs were the two total-mass-load based programs analysed. Linear programming models were established to determine the optimal division of seasons based on the objective of maximally allowable total waste load. Monte-Carlo simulation with QUAL2E-UNCAS was implemented to assess the risk of violation of water quality of seasonal programs. The proposed procedure is demonstrated in a case study of the Tung-Kang River basin in Taiwan.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1369-1376
Number of pages8
JournalWater Research
Issue number6
StatePublished - Jun 1996


  • Design low flow
  • Monte-Carlo simulation
  • Optimization
  • Risk analysis
  • Seasonal discharge program
  • Water quality model

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