Reliability analysis of hydraulic structures considering unit hydrograph uncertainty

B. Zhao*, Yeou-Koung Tung, Keh-Chia Yeh, J. C. Yang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations


Unit hydrographs (UHs), along with design rainfalls, are frequently used to determine the discharge hydrograph for design and evaluation of hydraulic structures. Due to the presence of various uncertainties in its derivation, the resulting UH is inevitably subject to uncertainty. Consequently, the performance of hydraulic structures under the design storm condition is uncertain. This paper integrates the linearly constrained Monte-Carlo simulation with the UH theory and routing techniques to evaluate the reliability of hydraulic structures. The linear constraint is considered because the water volume of each generated design direct runoff hydrograph should be equal to that of the design effective rainfall hyetograph or the water volume of each generated UH must be equal to one inch (or cm) over the watershed. For illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to evaluate the overtopping risk of a hypothetical flood detention reservoir downstream of Tong-Tou watershed in Taiwan.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)33-50
Number of pages18
JournalStochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics
Issue number1
StatePublished - Feb 1997


  • Linearly constrained Monte-Carlo simulation
  • Reliability analysis
  • Uncertainty analysis
  • Unit hydrograph

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