This study aims at developing a reliability-analysis model (RA_WS_RES) to quantify the effect of variations in uncertainties factors regarding the reservoir inflow and outflow at various 10-day periods on the reliability of water supply from the reservoir. The uncertainty factors considered are classified into three types: the hydrological factors (rainfall, baseflow, and initial water level of the reservoir), the reservoir operation rules for the water-allocation model (RIBASIM), and the parameters of rainfall-runoff model (i.e. Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting, SAC-SMA). In the proposed RA_WS_RES model, the reliability of the water supply attributed to the uncertainty factors considered can be quantified by collaborating the multivariate Monte Carlo simulation (MMCS) methods and uncertainty-risk (advanced first order and second moment, AFOSM) analysis. Shihmen Reservoir watershed in Northern Taiwan is selected as the study area and four associated demand nodes are regarded as the study nodes; the hourly rainfall data from 1987 to 2014 and other hydrological data (i.e. rainfall, baseflow, and initial water level of the reservoir) as well as the operation rule curves are adopted in the model development and application. The results from the numerical experiences indicate that among the uncertainty factors concerned, the average rainfall depth at the current 10-day period and the range between the lower and critical levels are more sensitive to the estimation of water supply from Shihmen Reservoir. Additionally, the impact of variation in baseflow on the reliability of the water supply from Shihmen Reservoir should be taken into account, especially in the dry season. In addition to rainfall and baseflow, the initial water level should be an important source for the water supply, and its effect gradually reduces with the 10-day period. Furthermore, the reliability of water supply is obviously impacted by the uncertainty in the range between the lower and critical rule level, especially in the dry season, due to its range being adversely related with the water supply. Eventually, the proposed RA_WS_RES model can effectively and reasonably quantify the reliability of water supply attributed to variations in uncertainty factors at different 10-day period under the consideration of climate change.
- Logistic regression analysis
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Risk and uncertainty analysis
- Water allocation model