Predecessor-set technique for reliability evaluation of a stochastic manufacturing system

Yi-Kuei Lin*, Ping Chen Chang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations


This paper studies the reliability evaluation of a stochastic manufacturing system with multiple production lines in parallel. Multiple repairs and different failure rates, never simultaneously addressed in earlier works, are taken into account. First, a revised graphical methodology integrating transformation and decomposition is utilized to construct the stochastic manufacturing system as a multi-state manufacturing network (MSMN). In particular, a “predecessor-set” technique is proposed to deal with multiple repairs. An algorithm is proposed to generate the lowest capacity vectors (LCVs) that stations should provide to satisfy the workloads. Subsequently, the system reliability of the MSMN, which is defined as the probability of demand satisfaction, is calculated in terms of the LCVs. A real case of a printed circuit board manufacturing system is utilized to demonstrate how the system reliability can be evaluated. A further decision making issue is addressed based on the derived system reliability.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)190-210
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering
Issue number2
StatePublished - 29 Oct 2015


  • different failure rates
  • lowest capacity vector (LCV)
  • Multi-state manufacturing network (MSMN)
  • multiple repairs
  • predecessor-set
  • system reliability

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