First-order analysis is used to estimate the uncertainty of deterministic hydraulic models which have uncertain parameters. The first-order analysis of uncertainty enables the estimation of the mean and variance of the capacity of hydraulic structures. An example of developing the risk evaluation procedure by considering the inherent hydrologic uncertainty and hydraulic uncertainties for culvert design is presented. Both static reliability models, which consider single loading application to hydraulic structures, and time-dependent (dynamic) reliability models, which consider the random nature of the loading, are developed.
|Journal||Texas University, Center for Research in Water Resources, Technical Report|
|State||Published - 1 Jan 1980|