MODELING THE RELATIONSHIP OF ACCIDENTS TO MILES TRAVELED.

Paul P. Jovanis*, Hsin-Li Chang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

233 Scopus citations

Abstract

Consideration of highway safety studies in a time-space domain is used to introduce the concept that different study designs result in different underlying probability distributions describing accident occurrence. Poisson regression is proposed as a superior alternative to conventional linear regression for many safety studies because it requires smaller sample sizes and has other desirable statistical properties. Models are estimated using accident, travel mileage, and environmental data from the Indiana Toll Road. A pooled model including all accidents revealed that accident occurrence increases with automobile vehicle miles of travel (VMT), truck VMT, and hours of snowfall.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)42-51
Number of pages10
JournalTransportation Research Record
StatePublished - 1 Dec 1986

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