Modeling crash frequency and severity using multinomial-generalized Poisson model with error components

Yu-Chiun Chiou*, Chiang Fu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

53 Scopus citations

Abstract

Since the factors contributing to crash frequency and severity usually differ, an integrated model under the multinomial generalized Poisson (MGP) architecture is proposed to analyze simultaneously crash frequency and severity - making estimation results increasingly efficient and useful. Considering the substitution pattern among severity levels and the shared error structure, four models are proposed and compared - the MGP model with or without error components (EMGP and MGP models, respectively) and two nested generalized Poisson models (NGP model). A case study based on accident data for Taiwan's No. 1 Freeway is conducted. The results show that the EMGP model has the best goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy indices. Additionally, estimation results show that factors contributing to crash frequency and severity differ markedly. Safety improvement strategies are proposed accordingly.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)73-82
Number of pages10
JournalAccident Analysis and Prevention
Volume50
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2013

Keywords

  • Crash frequency
  • Crash severity
  • Error components
  • Multinomial-generalized Poisson

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