Lot cycle time prediction in a ramping-up semiconductor manufacturing factory with a SOM-FBPN-ensemble approach with multiple buckets and partial normalization

Tin-Chih Chen*, Yi Chi Wang, Horng Ren Tsai

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

60 Scopus citations

Abstract

"Ramp-up" is the process of increasing the production rate of a semiconductor manufacturing factory from the first lot to whole volume. Lot cycle time estimation and control during production ramp-up in a semiconductor factory is even more important. However, in addition to the large fluctuation, there are also trends and jumps (sudden increases) in the lot cycle time, which makes it a very challenging task. A SOM-FBPN-ensemble approach with multiple buckets and partial normalization is therefore proposed in this study for lot cycle time prediction in a ramping-up semiconductor manufacturing factory, which was seldom investigated in the past studies. The proposed methodology is composed of two parts. In the first part, the multiple-bucket approach is applied to consider the ramp-up plan of the semiconductor manufacturing factory. Subsequently, the SOM-FBPN-ensemble approach is applied to predict the cycle time of every lot in the ramping-up semiconductor manufacturing factory. The buckets obtained in the first part become additional inputs to the SOM-FBPN, and every parameter is normalized into a range narrower than [0, 1] to reflect the difference between the future and the past. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, a production simulation model was employed in this study. According to experimental results, the prediction accuracy of the proposed methodology was significantly better than those of many existing approaches.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1206-1216
Number of pages11
JournalInternational Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology
Volume42
Issue number11-12
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jun 2009

Keywords

  • Bucket
  • Cycle time
  • Fuzzy back propagation network
  • Prediction
  • Ramp up
  • Self-organization map
  • Semiconductor

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