How does the change in investor sentiment over time affect stock returns?

Cherng G. Ding*, Hung Jui Wang, Meng Che Lee, Wen Chi Hung, Chieh-Peng Lin

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

We examine how the change in investor sentiment (IS) over time (the IS trend) affects stock returns. The turnover rates of trading shares, trading value, and transactions, three market measures of trading activity, have been demonstrated to meet the psychometric criteria for measuring the IS trend. The ratio of market price to book value and the short-selling turnover ratio are inappropriate proxies. The empirical results indicate that the influence of the IS trend on returns depends on the direction of the trend (optimistic or pessimistic) and stock characteristics of individual holdings and on arbitrage constraint. The effectiveness of arbitrage, sentiment-driven mispricing, and market intervention are discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)144-158
Number of pages15
JournalEmerging Markets Finance and Trade
Volume50
Issue numberSUPPL. 2
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Mar 2014

Keywords

  • arbitrage
  • confirmatory factor analysis
  • investor sentiment
  • market intervention
  • sentiment-driven mispricing
  • stock returns

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