Forecasting nonlinear time series of energy consumption using a hybrid dynamic model

Yi Shian Lee*, Lee-Ing Tong

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

68 Scopus citations

Abstract

Energy consumption is an important index of the economic development of a country. Rapid changes in industry and the economy strongly affect energy consumption. Although traditional statistical approaches yield accurate forecasts of energy consumption, they may suffer from several limitations such as the need for large data sets and the assumption of a linear formula. This work describes a novel hybrid dynamic approach that combines a dynamic grey model with genetic programming to forecast energy consumption. This proposed approach is utilized to forecast energy consumption because of its excellent accuracy, applicability to cases with limited data sets and ease of computability using mathematical software. Two case studies of energy consumption demonstrate the reliability of the proposed model. Computational results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms other models in forecasting energy consumption.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)251-256
Number of pages6
JournalApplied Energy
Volume94
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2012

Keywords

  • Energy consumption
  • Genetic programming
  • Grey forecasting model
  • Hybrid dynamic approach

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