Contagion effect of natural disasters on international cargo flow by industries

Y. C. Huang, C. I. Hsu, Ka-Io Wong

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

This study examines whether natural disasters lead to spatial contagion when they strike a major trading country. Using the 2011 Japan earthquake as an example, the results show that spatial contagion is observed for China, Thailand, and Singapore to Taiwan linkages during the four-month post-disaster period, but not the U.S. to Taiwan linkage. We find the signs change (i.e., from positive to negative) in transnational trade linkage correlations in industrial cargo volumes after natural disasters, which may cause industrial cargo demand to transfer from the disaster country to another one. In addition, the spatial contagion accumulated for months on linkages may gradually disperse over a short-term period. We also analyze the relationship between the distance from disaster-affected countries and duration of disaster-affected months, and it is found that spatial contagion effect is more significant on neighboring countries for importing cargo volumes. The results of the spatial contagion effect offer a valuable reference for marine carriers to make adjustments in scheduling and fleet requirements in response to short-term fluctuations in industrial cargo demand when an unexpected disaster strikes a country.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2014 - Transportation and Infrastructure
EditorsZ. Leng, Y. H. Wang
PublisherHong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited
Pages155-162
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9789881581433
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2014
Event19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and Infrastructure, HKSTS 2014 - Hong Kong, China
Duration: 13 Dec 201415 Dec 2014

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2014 - Transportation and Infrastructure

Conference

Conference19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and Infrastructure, HKSTS 2014
CountryChina
CityHong Kong
Period13/12/1415/12/14

Keywords

  • Contagion effect
  • Industry
  • Natural disasters

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  • Cite this

    Huang, Y. C., Hsu, C. I., & Wong, K-I. (2014). Contagion effect of natural disasters on international cargo flow by industries. In Z. Leng, & Y. H. Wang (Eds.), Proceedings of the 19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2014 - Transportation and Infrastructure (pp. 155-162). (Proceedings of the 19th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2014 - Transportation and Infrastructure). Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited.