Assessing bankruptcy prediction models via information content of technical inefficiency

Ruey Ching Hwang*, Jhao Siang Siao, Huimin Chung, C. K. Chu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

We use a stochastic frontier model with firm-specific technical inefficiency effects in a panel framework (Battese and Coelli in Empir Econ 20:325-332, 1995) to assess two popular probability of bankruptcy (PB) measures based on Merton model (Merton in J Financ 29:449-470, 1974) and discrete-time hazard model (DHM; Shumway in J Bus 74:101-124, 2001). Three important results based on our empirical studies are obtained. First, a firm with a higher PB generally has less technical efficiency. Second, for an ex-post bankrupt firm, its PB tends to increase and its technical efficiency of production tends to decrease, as the time to its bankruptcy draws near. Finally, the information content about firm's technical inefficiency provided by PB based on DHM is significantly more than that based on Merton model. By the last result and the fact that economic-based efficiency measures are reasonable indicators of the long-term health and prospects of firms (Baek and Pagán in Q J Bus Econ 41:27-41, 2002), we conclude that PB based on DHM is a better credit risk proxy of firms.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)263-273
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Productivity Analysis
Volume36
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2011

Keywords

  • Discrete-time hazard model
  • Merton model
  • Robust Wald test
  • Stochastic frontier model

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