Alternative risk measure for decision-making under uncertainty in water management

Yueping Xu*, Yeou-Koung Tung, Jia Li, Shaofeng Niu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

Taking into account uncertainties in water management remains a challenge due to social, economic and environmental changes. Often, uncertainty creates difficulty in ranking or comparing multiple water management options, possibly leading to a wrong decision. In this paper, an alternative risk measure is proposed to facilitate the ranking or comparison of water management options under uncertainty by using the concepts of conditional expected loss and partial mean. This measure has the advantages of being more intuitive, general and could relate to many other measures of risk in the literature. The application of the risk measure is demonstrated through a case study for the evaluation of flood mitigation projects. The results show that the new measure is applicable to a general decisionmaking process under uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)115-119
Number of pages5
JournalProgress in Natural Science
Volume19
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2009

Keywords

  • Conditional expected loss
  • Decision-making under uncertainty
  • Partial mean
  • Risk measure
  • Water management

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