A multilayer epidemiological model integrating daily commuting network

Yu Shiuan Tsai, Chung Yuan Huang*, Tzai Hung Wen, Chuen-Tsai Sun

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

To assess the impacts of various interventions on epidemic dynamics, the authors propose an integrated epidemiological simulation framework called Multilayer Epidemic Dynamics Simulator (MEDSim), which combines four contact structures: within age group, between age groups, daily commute, and nationwide interaction. We use the daily commuting network to simulate outbreak locations and intervention scenarios for the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza epidemic in Taiwan. Our three main findings are: (a) lower transmission rates and earlier intervention activation times did not reduce total numbers of infected cases, but did delay peak times; (b) when transmission rate was decreased by a minimum of 70%, significant slowing-down effects were observed when interventions were activated before the 50th new case (c) peaks times were achieved more quickly when initial outbreaks occurred in urban rather than rural areas. The innovative simulation framework reflects the dynamic processes of epidemics under different intervention scenarios, thus clarifying the effects of complex contact structures on disease transmission dynamics.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSelected Topics in System Science and Simulation in Engineering - 9th WSEAS International Conference on System Science and Simulation in Engineering, ICOSSSE'10
Pages77-83
Number of pages7
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2010
Event9th WSEAS International Conference on System Science and Simulation in Engineering, ICOSSSE'10 - Iwate, Japan
Duration: 4 Oct 20106 Oct 2010

Publication series

NameInternational conference on System Science and Simulation in Engineering - Proceedings
ISSN (Print)1792-507X

Conference

Conference9th WSEAS International Conference on System Science and Simulation in Engineering, ICOSSSE'10
CountryJapan
CityIwate
Period4/10/106/10/10

Keywords

  • Commuting network
  • Computer simulation
  • Epidemic dynamics
  • Geographic information system
  • Multilayer model

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